Betting For Value
So often we hear of value betting and how we should be using it to our advantage, but what exactly is it? How do we begin to understand it?
What you should know from the outset is that spotting the value in a bet is incredibly difficult even for betting professionals. If your eyes begin to glaze over when you start seeing the maths then don’t beat yourself up for it – you are in the majority of people who want to bet for fun but want to try and understand a little more about what they are betting on without resitting their maths GCSE!
For the purposes of this article I’m excluding free bets and betting offers because although they can have a big impact on your profit they are not always available for every bet and so they should be discounted for the purposes of value betting.
Essentially value betting is boiled down into three clear components.
1. The percentage probability that an individual or team has of winning.
2. The Bookmakers odds.
3. The information you have on the team or individual that you are going to be betting on.
Combining all of these three elements gives you the information you need to decide whether a bet is value, or if the chances of winning are so slim that you will never recoup your outlay in bets to make a profit.
Out of these three distinct elements the hardest part of the equation to solve is how to ascertain the percentage probability of your bet winning.
There are many complicated ways of doing this which I will save for a future in-depth article on probability betting so for the purposes of this exercise we will stick with the simple way of determining the chances of a bet winning and how to find value.
Also you should bear in mind that because you are betting for value a high percentage of your bets will be losing bets because you will be betting on the underdog with the best best betting apps.
Because you will get the bigger odds on the small amount of bets that that you ultimately win, value betting is the way to make a profit in sports betting.
So to begin with let’s start with the percentage probability that each player has of winning. This of course is a subjective matter and the percentage will vary depending on the person who is doing the analysis. This is what makes one gambling tipster or professional gambler better than another – the amount of information they have at their fingertips to be able to make an informed betting decision and what they do with that information.
This of course is the information age and so whilst the professionals have expensive databases and access to extensive historic data you also have at your disposal free Internet resources such as Wikipedia.org which will give you all the information that you need to do your research and make a betting decision.
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